Oil prices and solar activity: evidence of strong ties

  • Vladimir Alexeyevich Belkin

Аннотация







In this work author is using methodological approach developed by W. S. Jevons and A. L Chizhevsky. Years of solar cycles were numbered in prescribed astrophysics manner, combined and compared against average values of Brent oil price. Grouping of data by years of solar cycle allowed developing regressive polynomial model where Brent crude oil price1 is dependent variable and number of respective years in the solar cycle is independent. Resulting R-squared value is equal to 0.9897. This model allows forecasting of prices on oil basing solely on year number in solar cycle. Model suggests that 2020’s Brent Crude price will decrease to USD 48.798 level per barrel and forecasted values of Crude Brent for 2021 and 2022 are USD 47.957 and USD 61.175 per barrel respectively.







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##submission.authorBiography##

Vladimir Alexeyevich Belkin

PhD in Economics

Литература

1. Belkin, V. A. (2015). Cikly cen na neft’ i magnitnyh bur’: mekhanizm i fakty sil’nyh svyazej (1861–2015 gg.) [Cycles of oil prices and magnetic storms: mechanism and facts of strong ties (1861-2015)], in: Chelyabinskij gumanitarij [Chelyabinsk Humanities], no. 3 (32), pp.16-28. (In Russ.).
2. Krichevskij, N. and Astaf’ev, I. (2016). Pal’cem v barrel’ [Hit or Miss Barrel], in: Novaya gazeta [New Newspaper], Issue No. 5 of January 20, 2016, available at: http://www. novayagazeta.ru/economy/71493.html accessed 23.01.2020.
3. Obridko, V. N. (2013). Solnechnaya aktivnost’ i geomagnitnye vozmushcheniya [Solar activity and geomagnetic disturbances], in: Geomagnetizm i aeronomiya [Geomagnetism and Aeronomy], Volume 53, no. 2, pp. 157–166 (In Russ.).
4. Fadeeva, A. and Podobedova, L. (2020). Prognoz na 2020 god: skol’ko budut stoit’ neft’ i rubl’ [Forecast for 2020: how much oil and ruble will cost], in: RBK [RosBusinessConsulting] January 03, 2020, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/03/01/2020/5e04891e9a7947662 5d41d8b accessed 25.01.2020.
5. Chizhevskij, A. L. (1976). Zemnoe ekho solnechnyh bur’ [Earth echoes of solar storms], “Think”, Moscow, 367 p. (In Russ.).
6. Chizhevskij, A. L. (1995). Kosmicheskij pul’s zhizni: Zemlya v ob”yatiyah Solnca [Chizhevsky, A. L. Cosmic Pulse of Life: Earth in Sun’s arms. “Think”, Moscow, 767 p. (In Russ.).
7. Jevons, W. S. (1882). The solar-commercial cycles, in: Nature, July 6, pp. 226–228.
8. US Energy Information Administration. Petroleum & Other Liquids. Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products. Monthly, available at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/ LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M, accessed 23.01.2020.
9. Statistical Review of World Energy. BP, available at: https://www.bp.com/en/global/ corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html, accessed 23.01.2020.
10. WorldDataCenterfortheproduction,preservationanddisseminationoftheinternational sunspot number. Sunspot Number. Yearly mean total sunspot number [1700–now], available at: http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics, accessed 23.01.2020.
Опубликована
2020-02-12
Как цитировать
BELKIN, Vladimir Alexeyevich. Oil prices and solar activity: evidence of strong ties. Челябинский гуманитарий, [S.l.], n. 1 (50), p. 7-19, feb. 2020. ISSN 1999-5407. Доступно на: <https://journals.csu.ru/index.php/chelgum/article/view/384>. Дата доступа: 18 july 2024
Раздел
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ