Oil prices and solar activity: evidence of strong ties
Аннотация
In this work author is using methodological approach developed by W. S. Jevons and A. L Chizhevsky. Years of solar cycles were numbered in prescribed astrophysics manner, combined and compared against average values of Brent oil price. Grouping of data by years of solar cycle allowed developing regressive polynomial model where Brent crude oil price1 is dependent variable and number of respective years in the solar cycle is independent. Resulting R-squared value is equal to 0.9897. This model allows forecasting of prices on oil basing solely on year number in solar cycle. Model suggests that 2020’s Brent Crude price will decrease to USD 48.798 level per barrel and forecasted values of Crude Brent for 2021 and 2022 are USD 47.957 and USD 61.175 per barrel respectively.
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Литература
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